Hope is not a pipeline strategy. Neither is 'we've always been busy in Q3.'
What pipeline coverage means
Pipeline coverage is the ratio of qualified opportunities in your pipeline to your revenue target for a given period. If you need $200K in revenue next quarter and you have $600K in qualified pipeline, your coverage ratio is 3x.
For most professional services firms, you need 2.5x to 3.5x coverage to reliably hit target. Anything below 2x and you're gambling.
Why most firms don't track this
Because most firms don't have a pipeline. They have a list of people who might call someday. That's not a pipeline — it's a prayer list.
A real pipeline has stages, probabilities, and expected close dates. An inquiry is different from a proposal. A proposal is different from a verbal yes. Each stage has a conversion rate, and that rate tells you how much pipe you need at the top.
Building the stages
- Inquiry/lead: someone expressed interest (10–15% probability)
- Consultation: you've had a substantive conversation (25–35%)
- Proposal sent: they're reviewing terms (40–60%)
- Verbal agreement: handshake, pending paperwork (75–90%)
- Signed/engaged: money is coming (95–100%)
Reading the number
Coverage tells you how much runway you actually have, in weeks not feelings. When coverage drops below 2x, it's time to invest in business development — not next month, today.
When coverage is above 4x, you probably have a qualification problem. Not everything in your pipeline is real. Scrub it.
The goal is never to be surprised. Pipeline coverage replaces anxiety with information.